Shot Calling, Revisited

So I did poorly in the political handicapping. I underestimated the House and overestimated the Senate. Let’s review (correct predictions are in green, incorrect in red):

looking pretty much just at Illinois + significant national races; picks in bold).

·         Illinois

o   Governor: Bill Brady (R), Pat Quinn (D)(I)

Wrong. I thought Brady would be the default of people voting for Republicans they actually cared about. Also, who was fired up to vote for Pat Quinn? I guess that just speaks to how bad of a candidate Brady was.

o   Senate: Mark Kirk (R), Alexi Giannoulias (D)

Closer than it had any business being. Giannoulias was an inexcusably bad candidate, which is probably why the White House asked him not to run.

o   Atty General: Lisa Madigan (D)(I), Steve Kim (R)

o   Sec of State: Jesse White (D)(Tumblers)(I), Robert Enriquez (R)

o   Treasurer: Dan Rutherford (R), Robin Kelly (D)

Again, closer than I thought it would be (49.9-45.1)

o   U.S. Rep, 10th Dist: Joel Pollak (R), Jan Schakowsky (D)(I)

Unfortunately, Jan continues to represent me.

o   U.S. Rep, 9th Dist: Bob Dold (R), Dan Seals (D)

Bob Dold just kind of hung out and won this one. I thought Seals would have built up enough name recognition to win here having run the previous two times.

o   U.S. Rep, 11th Dist: Debbie Halvorson (D)(I), Adam Kinzinger (R)

·         Alaska

o   Senate: Joe Miller (R), Lisa Murkowski (Write-in), Scott McAdams (D)

I said to myself that I’d believe a successful write-in candidacy when I saw it. I’m about to see it.

·         California

o   Governor: Jerry Brown (D), Meg Whitman (R)

o   Senate: Carly Fiorina (R), Barbara Boxer (D)(I)

·         Colorado

o   Senate: Ken Buck (R), Michael Bennet (D)

Surprised Bennet didn’t go down, he’s quite a milquetoast candidate.

·         Connecticut

o   Senate: Richard Blumenthal (D), Linda McMahon (R)

·         Delaware

o   Senate: Chris Coons (D), Christine O’Donnell (R)

Is she out of our lives? I hope yes.

·         Florida

o   Senate: Charlie Crist (Ind.), Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D)

Story of the night, possibly. He rolled through this one.

o   Governor: Rick Scott (R), Alex Sink (D)

This guy has no business holding office anywhere.

·         Nevada

o   Senate: Sharron Angle (R), Harry Reid (D)(I)(OMGLOL)

Sometimes, there’s enough smoke and mirrors to make one forget that Sharron Angle is on the other side.

·         Pennsylvania

o   Senate: Joe Sestak (D), Pat Toomey (R)

·         Washington

o   Senate: Patty Murray (D)(I), Dino Rossi (R)

This one just went final hours ago. I thought states with weird variables (i.e., Washington’s mail-in ballots) may get all caught up in the wave, but no.

·         West Virginia

o   Senate: Joe Manchin (D), John Raese (R)

An upset pick from the start. Still, thinking WV would go red is not a stretch of any imagination.

·         Wisconsin

o   Senate: Ron Johnson (R), Russ Feingold (D)(I)

The easiest call of the night, really.


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