Calling Shots


One of the things I enjoy about politics is that on the one hand, it’s much more complex and layered than simply picking winners like you’re going through your weekly football pool. On the other hand, it’s totally not, and I will now treat it that way by attempting to see how many races I can get right without even a pesky point spread complicating things (looking pretty much just at Illinois + significant national races; picks in bold).

·         Illinois

o   Governor: Bill Brady (R), Pat Quinn (D)(I)

o   Senate: Mark Kirk (R), Alexi Giannoulias (D)

o   Atty General: Lisa Madigan (D)(I), Steve Kim (R)

o   Sec of State: Jesse White (D)(Tumblers)(I), Robert Enriquez (R)

o   Treasurer: Dan Rutherford (R), Robin Kelly (D)

o   U.S. Rep, 10th Dist: Joel Pollak (R), Jan Schakowsky (D)(I)

o   U.S. Rep, 9th Dist: Bob Dold (R), Dan Seals (D)

o   U.S. Rep, 11th Dist: Debbie Halvorson (D)(I), Adam Kinzinger (R)

·         Alaska

o   Senate: Joe Miller (R), Lisa Murkowski (Write-in), Scott McAdams (D)

·         California

o   Governor: Jerry Brown (D), Meg Whitman (R)

o   Senate: Carly Fiorina (R), Barbara Boxer (D)(I)

·         Colorado

o   Senate: Ken Buck (R), Michael Bennet (D)

·         Connecticut

o   Senate: Richard Blumenthal (D), Linda McMahon (R)

·         Delaware

o   Senate: Chris Coons (D), Christine O’Donnell (R)

·         Florida

o   Senate: Charlie Crist (Ind.), Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D)

o   Governor: Rick Scott (R), Alex Sink (D)

·         Nevada

o   Senate: Sharron Angle (R), Harry Reid (D)(I)(OMGLOL)

·         Pennsylvania

o   Senate: Joe Sestak (D), Pat Toomey (R)

·         Washington

o   Senate: Patty Murray (D)(I), Dino Rossi (R)

·         West Virginia

o   Senate: Joe Manchin (D), John Raese (R)

·         Wisconsin

o   Senate: Ron Johnson (R), Russ Feingold (D)(I)

I think that’s most of them. Overall, I’ve got +10 in the Senate for Republicans – that is maybe a shade high, and the longest shots are Dino Rossi in WA and John Raese in WV (note: it is absurd that I just named Senate long shots and was unable to include Sharron Angle; if that doesn’t tell you what you need to know about Harry Reid, I don’t know what could, ever). Republicans will take the House, it’s just a matter of by how much, and I honestly have no idea. It could go from+50 to +80. Get in on the action and we can track it tomorrow.


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